Wednesday, July 30, 2008

The Tex Trade

The first thing I did was go to the Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/) to check on the win shares. Tex has a 11.7 to 9.4 advantage in batting WS. but Kotchman leads in fielding, 2.5 to 1.6. Therefore Tex leads 13.3 to 11.9. Buttttttt...Hold on, Nellie! In WSP Kotchman leads with .568 to .560! What, you ask is WSP? I'm glad you asked...
WSP (Link)
Win Shares Percent, a Win Shares "rate stat" -- a measure of the player's contribution, given his playing time. The math is WS/(2*ExpWS). Expected Win Shares are the number of Win Shares an average player contributed, given that particular player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field.

Casey is younger, a better fielder, and will cost much less. His OBP is way down this year, although his HRs are up. Checking his minor league stats, I noticed his OBP was over .400 on the farm! Last year, his first full season in the show, he produced a .372 OBP. I can only conclude that because of the dearth of runs scored by the Anangels, someone told the young man to sacrifice his batting eye for power.
Then I checked his splits...Wow! This guy can hit lefty's.....349 BA; 393 OBP; .566 SLUG
That's with only 89 PA, but...Compare that with how he hits RHP: .269 BA; .307 OBP; .414 SLUG; in 309 PA.
OK, so let's see how he's hit LHP in his short career. Maybe this year is a fluke? Oh no! Vs LHP it's: .302 BA; .366 OBP; .420 SLUG...That's with 231 PA, mind you! Compare that with what he's hit in 1034 PA vs RHP: .267 BA; .330 OBP; .427 SLUG.
And the Braves get an arm, too? I know, a pitcher is always one pitch away from thru...But hey...I'm telling you, I would have never thought the Braves woulda gotten this much for a two or three month player! THIS IS A GREAT TRADE FOR THE ATLANTA BRAVES!
One more thing...I couldn't help noticing on the Hardball Times website that the Anangels are 8 games better than they should be, having won 65 when they shoulda won 57; while the Braves are almost the opposite, having won 6 fewer games than they should have. They could have a winning record of 55-50 even with all the problems they've had. Put that with last years version of Frenchy (Frenchy? Frenchy? Where are you, Frenchy?!), and the Braves would be in first place!
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...If that blind umpire had seen Hrbek slam-dunk Ronnie Gant...or seen David Justice kick up chalk from the third base bag...or Lonnie had kept running...Or if 4 games had been played in a REAL OUTDOOR STADIUM...If Mark Wohlers had thrown nothing but heat to Leyritz...What time is it?...


Chicago - Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?
As I was walking down the street one day/A man came up to me and asked me what the time was that was/on my watch, yeah/And I said/Does anybody really know what time it is/I don't/Does anybody really care/care/If so I can't imagine why/about time/We've all got time enough to cry/Oh no, no/And I was walking down the street one day/A pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch had/stopped cold dead/And I said/Does anybody really know what time it is/I don't/Does anybody really care/care/If so I can't imagine why/about time/We've all got time enough to cry/Oh no, no/And I was walking down the street one day/Being pushed and shoved by people trying to beat the clock,oh, so I just don't know,I just don't know/And I said, yes I said/Background Vocal:People runnin' everywhere/Don't know the way to go/Don't know where I am/Can't see past the next step/Don't have to think past the last mile/Have no time to look around/Just run around, run around and think why/Does anybody really know what time it is/I don't/Does anybody really care/care/If so I can't imagine why/about time/We've all got time enough to die/Oh no, no

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